“If crude prices drop to $40, Nigeria will not survive it,” stated Mr. Paul Alaje, an economist…
A prominent Nigerian economist has warned that the country could face severe economic setbacks if global crude oil prices fall sharply, despite ongoing reforms aimed at stabilising the economy.
“If crude prices drop to $40, Nigeria will not survive it,” said Mr. Paul Alaje in an interview with Arise TV on Wednesday. He stressed the urgent need to revise key economic assumptions, including the 15% inflation target and revenue projections.
Alaje highlighted Nigeria’s persistent reliance on oil, urging swift adjustments to fiscal plans. “Revenue targets should also be adjusted, considering the shift in oil price assumptions,” he stated.
While the country recently reported a balance of payments surplus for 2024, Alaje cautioned that gains could reverse quickly if oil prices decline.
“To overcome this economic downturn, Nigeria must prioritise manufacturing,” he advised, echoing growing calls for industrialisation to secure long-term stability.