The United States could experience a net loss of immigrants in 2025 — a first in over 50 years — due to sweeping immigration policies under President Trump, economists warn.
A forthcoming paper by experts from the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute cites the near-shutdown of the southern border, reduced legal admissions, and rising deportations as key factors.
“For the year as a whole, we think it’s likely [immigration] will be negative,” said economist Wendy Edelberg. “It certainly would be the first time in more than 50 years.”
The shift may drive inflation and exacerbate labor shortages, particularly in agriculture, construction, and hospitality. Economists also warn of long-term fiscal consequences, with fewer workers to support Social Security. Deportation efforts, threats to international students, and revoked legal statuses are accelerating the trend. The administration’s immigration agenda includes removing one million migrants this year, with additional funding pending in Congress.
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