A war far away sent oil prices soaring—bringing Nigeria profit, pain, and a fresh diplomatic puzzle.
When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion in the early hours of 13 June 2025, most Nigerians were asleep. The footage came in fragments—precision airstrikes, sirens over Tel Aviv, defiant chants in Tehran. Within hours, Iran responded with Operation True Promise III, unleashing waves of drones and missiles towards Israeli positions. It was dramatic, brutal, and all too familiar: another chapter in the long, looping narrative of Middle Eastern conflict. But the shockwaves didn’t stop at the borders of Iran or Israel. They travelled through global oil markets, diplomatic corridors, and geopolitical nerves—and in their wake, Nigeria began to feel the tremors.
By the end of that first week, crude oil prices had jumped sharply. For Nigeria, an oil economy in all but name, this was both a relief and a riddle. Higher oil prices meant more dollars from exports, more money flowing into government accounts, and—at least on paper—a budget easier to balance. After all, oil still accounts for more than 90% of Nigeria’s export earnings and approximately half of the government’s revenue. With the 2025 budget benchmarked at $75 per barrel, any sudden climb towards $100 looked like a gift from chaos.
But nothing is ever that simple. The same price surge that may pad Abuja’s pockets may also punish everyday Nigerians. The cost of diesel, already elevated due to subsidy removals and pipeline vandalism, may rise further. Transporters may hike their fares. Manufacturers facing higher energy costs may pass them on to consumers. Tomatoes, noodles, cement—everything costs more. The Central Bank, still trying to steady the naira and tame inflation, has hinted at another interest rate hike. What began as a geopolitical explosion thousands of miles away may be shaping monetary policy in Abuja and emptying wallets in Enugu. It was a familiar paradox: Nigeria, rich in oil, drowning in cost.
The Israel–Iran conflict touches nerves far beyond the battlefield, and for Nigeria, it activates a complicated web of diplomatic, religious, and geopolitical considerations. First, Nigeria’s identity as a multi-religious nation plays an outsized role in how it engages with conflicts in the Middle East. With a large and politically active Muslim population, especially in the northern regions, Nigeria must be mindful of public sentiment. Historically, Muslim-majority countries across Africa have taken strong stances on Palestinian liberation and opposed Western alignment with Israel. Domestic political actors and Islamic clerics in Nigeria often echo this sentiment, making neutrality a high-wire act for Nigerian diplomats.
Furthermore, Nigeria has long held an official position that supports the Palestinian cause, often voting in favour of Palestinian self-determination at the United Nations and other multilateral platforms. This legacy shapes its foreign policy and regional affiliations, including membership in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). However, over the past decade, Nigeria has also established discreet but critical bilateral relations with Israel, particularly in the areas of technology, security, counterterrorism, agriculture, and water management. Israeli companies have participated in developmental projects in Nigeria, and security cooperation has included counter-insurgency support in the fight against Boko Haram, piracy, and banditry.
This means that Nigeria cannot afford to alienate either side. It must craft a nuanced diplomatic language that upholds its historical solidarity with Palestine while preserving its growing strategic relationship with Israel. It also has to navigate its broader relationship with the Islamic world, which includes key oil-producing allies in the Middle East like Saudi Arabia and the UAE—countries that are themselves carefully managing their stakes in the Israel–Iran drama. All this unfolds while Nigeria also depends on the West, particularly the United States and European Union, for development assistance, security cooperation, and trade.