Setting an overestimated benchmark inflates the deficit beyond the 4% legal limit
President Bola Tinubu’s ₦49.74 trillion 2025 budget is under pressure as global crude oil prices fall below the government’s $75 per barrel benchmark. Nigeria’s key blends—Bonny Light, Brass River, Qua Iboe—are averaging $72.50 per barrel, nearly $2.50 beneath projections.
Analysts warn this shortfall could stall capital‐intensive projects and prompt fresh borrowing. Professor Ben Ife of ECOWAS criticised the benchmark as “unrealistic,” noting crude has hovered around $65 per barrel over three years. He cautioned that “setting an overestimated benchmark leaves no buffer for savings or the Excess Crude Account… it inflates the deficit beyond the 4% legal limit.”
Akpan Hogan Ekpo of the University of Uyo urged urgent revenue diversification and reallocation to critical power infrastructure, noting, “We’re already in the second half of the year, and most capital projects remain unfunded.” He also warned that expanding MDAs raises overheads without delivering development.
Public finance expert Sheriffdeen Tella recommended prioritising internal borrowing and cutting unnecessary spending over new external debt.