Kwankwaso’s recent claim that Tinubu has neglected the north was a heavy political statement that shook the president’s camp. No doubt, Tinubu is in for a very tight fight.
By SIMON KOLAWOLE
The pace and energy with which President Bola Tinubu’s foot soldiers sped to Kaduna last week to defend his stewardship at an engagement organised by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation (SABMF) should confirm an obvious thing: that the president knows the importance of getting northern support again in his bid for a second term in office. Contrary to the manner some of his supporters have dismissed the weight of the opposition, Tinubu seems to understand that without key northern votes, he would not have been elected president in 2023, not with a core northerner like Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the race. And it is evident he has since lost some mileage in that region.
Going by the history of our presidential elections, it is safer if two of the biggest three power blocs — the Muslim north, the south-east and the south-west — are substantially in your corner. They are called the “tripod” for a reason. Other power blocs — such as the middle belt (Christian north) and southern minorities — are valuable contributors to vote tallies but they hardly decide the outcome, except in 1979 when southern minorities gave Alhaji Shehu Shagari the edge as the tripod fielded strong candidates: Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe (south-east) and Chief Obafemi Awolowo (south-west). Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim and Mallam Aminu Kano, both core northerners, gave Shagari a hard time up north.
In 2023, Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso hurt Atiku in the north-west. This helped Tinubu to win overall in the north, adding it to his south-west haul. He was perhaps the only southerner who could have defeated a homeboy of Atiku’s status up north given his political network, but the northern streets are no longer smiling. One big issue is the economic reform which has hit low-income earners, most of whom are northerners. Another is the disquiet over the pattern of Tinubu’s appointments, aka “Yorubanisation agenda”. Kwankwaso’s recent claim that Tinubu has neglected the north was a heavy political statement that shook the president’s camp. No doubt, Tinubu is in for a very tight fight.
If Tinubu were contending for northern votes with only a fellow southerner, his calculations would be different. But he will be up, for the second time, against an old warhorse in Atiku, who must fancy his chances this time around. Atiku has been seeking to be president since 1993 — the last 32 years, that is — and he must see 2027 as his best chance ever because of the sentiments against Tinubu. Unlike in 2023 when Tinubu enjoyed the benefit of the doubt from many northerners who chose him above Atiku, the sentiments appear to have been markedly diluted. Tinubu will have to be at his very best to be able to warm, or worm, his way back to the hearts of northern power brokers and voters.
Tinubu will surely pick the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) — I am not expecting any drama there. It also looks certain that Atiku will pick the ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), where opposition figures are coalescing. Mr Peter Obi, who put up an incredible performance in 2023, is still weighing his options. Should he leave the Labour Party for the ADC? Does he stand a chance of getting the ADC ticket? The elephant in the room, though, is: should he accept to be running mate to Atiku again? He was Atiku’s running mate in 2019. He is now a presidential candidate in his own right and his die-hard supporters might see that as a demotion.
Even if Obi wants to stoop to conquer by accepting to be running mate (and hoping to take his turn in 2031), not many of his supporters will agree. It is, thus, being suggested that Atiku should play the statesman by working for Obi to be president. This, to me, is Obi’s best route to power. The truth, however, is that Atiku wants to be president and this is probably his last throw of the dice. He did not gather a coalition together for the sake of supporting someone else. One scenario might be that Obi would be encouraged to try his luck by contesting in the party’s primary against other aspirants. The prospects of Obi defeating Atiku or Rt Hon Rotimi Amaechi in an ADC primary are not that bright.