New Pew data shows U.S. immigration has turned negative for the first time in decades, driven by Trump’s aggressive policies, raising fears of economic and demographic fallout.
For the first time in decades, more immigrants are leaving the United States than arriving, according to new data from the Pew Research Center, which attributes the trend to President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies.
Between January and June, the U.S. foreign-born population declined by nearly 1.5 million, dropping from 53.3 million to 51.9 million. Pew demographer Jeffrey Passel described the decline as a “demographic certainty” so far in 2025.
Administration officials have praised the outflow, saying it has eased pressure on public services and strengthened job markets. “Negative net migration for the first time in 50 years! Promises made. Promises kept,” Mr. Trump declared in an Aug. 4 post on Truth Social.
But economists warn the decline could harm the U.S. economy, especially as baby boomers retire and sectors reliant on immigrant labor face shortages. “If you take a sledgehammer to the labor force by cutting immigrant flows, we are all going to be seeing the consequences in our everyday lives,” said Dowell Myers, a demography professor at the University of Southern California.
The Trump administration has tightened visa rules, restricted asylum access, paused the refugee program, and launched a self-deportation app offering airfare and cash incentives. Fear of arrests and deportations has led many immigrants to leave voluntarily.
Lillian Divina Leite, a housekeeper in Charlotte, N.C., returned to Brazil using the new program. “I got really scared,” she said. “I thought, I haven’t done anything wrong in my life, and suddenly I could be imprisoned.”
Whether the U.S. experiences a lasting decline in immigration will depend on how far the administration continues its crackdown.
Experts caution that sustained negative migration could undermine America’s global competitiveness for talent.