A Kaduna State University study has revealed that Nigeria loses $15 billion annually to oil theft and vandalism, threatening the sustainability of the Tinubu administration’s economic agenda.
According to a report from THE NATION, Nigeria is losing an estimated $15 billion annually to oil theft and pipeline vandalism, a study by Professor Usman Muhammed of Kaduna State University has shown. The findings, presented at the 1st Citizens Engagement Conference (North-West Edition) in Kaduna, raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda beyond 2027.
Professor Muhammed noted that despite holding 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, Nigeria continues to suffer from “declining productivity and weak institutional accountability.” His study found that from 2019 to 2024, crude oil output averaged between 1.4 and 1.67 million barrels per day below the OPEC quota of 1.8 million barrels.
He said, “Implementation of the PIA and the commercialization of NNPC have begun to yield modest results, but production efficiency and local content development remain moderate.”
The report linked higher oil production with GDP growth (r = 0.74) and attributed 81 percent of GDP performance variance to regulatory quality and investment inflows.
Co-convener Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri urged government withdrawal from refinery ownership, saying, “When we deregulate, we kill corruption.” Participants agreed that transparency and private-sector participation are crucial for the sector’s revival.