A three-point deduction for South Africa would put Nigeria’s World Cup fate back in its own hands, requiring two decisive victories to overtake its rival on goal difference.
The mood is grim for Nigerian football fans after Tuesday’s 1-1 draw in South Africa. The result left the Super Eagles’ 2026 World Cup hopes hanging by a thread, seemingly needing a miracle to qualify automatically from Group C. However, a potential off-field development could dramatically rewrite the script: a FIFA points deduction against South Africa for fielding an ineligible player.
According reports, South Africa allegedly fielded an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena, in their qualifier against Lesotho on June 11, 2024. The allegation states Mokoena should have been suspended for the match due to accumulating two yellow cards. FIFA’s standard punishment for such an infraction is a mandatory 3-point deduction and a 3-0 forfeit of the match in question. Nigerians are believing that South Africa is on the brink of a severe FIFA sanction.
Assuming FIFA follows through, this will not just be a minor hypothetical; it will be potential game-changer. Currently, South Africa sits comfortably atop the group with 17 points, six clear of Nigeria’s 11. A three-point deduction would instantly slash Bafana Bafana’s total to 14 points.
This single action would completely reopen the door for Nigeria. The Super Eagles’ path would shift from near-impossible to entirely within their control. If Nigeria wins their final two matches against Lesotho and Benin, they would finish on 17 points. South Africa, even if they win their last two games, could now only also reach a maximum of 17 points (14 + 3 from two wins).
The group would then be decided by goal difference. While South Africa currently holds a significant advantage (+8 to Nigeria’s +2), the mission becomes clear: Nigeria must not only win, but win big. The focus would shift from scoreboard-watching other results to a sheer, determined onslaught in their final fixtures to overhaul the goal difference gap.
This scenario transforms the narrative from hoping for a South African collapse to controlling their own destiny. The pressure would be immense, but the opportunity would be real and tangible. For Nigerian fans, a FIFA disciplinary ruling is now a beacon of hope, a potential lifeline that could turn despair into a calculated mission for World Cup qualification.