Nigeria’s Super Eagles retain only a slim, highly improbable chance of reaching the 2026 World Cup, needing big wins and widespread upsets across Africa’s qualifiers.
Nigeria’s Super Eagles face an almost impossible task to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the United States. After a costly 1–1 draw with South Africa on September 9, their fate is no longer in their hands. South Africa top Group C with 17 points, while Nigeria, Benin and Rwanda each have 11, with Benin holding a game in hand.
For direct qualification, Nigeria must defeat Lesotho and Benin convincingly, erase a six-goal difference, and hope South Africa lose both remaining matches heavily. “This scenario is widely described as like winning the lottery twice—extremely unlikely,” analyst Dr. David Olalekan Olannrewaju wrote.
A playoff remains possible if Nigeria emerge among the four best second-placed teams, but even with maximum points they could trail nations such as Gabon, Cameroon and Burkina Faso. “Technically, yes—but realistically, it’s extremely bleak and unrealistic,” Olannrewaju concluded. Nigeria must now rely on heavy wins, favourable results elsewhere and “serious prayers and calculations.”