Leading academics warn that civilization may collapse this century under combined existential threats including nuclear war, climate change, AI and pandemics.
The chances of humanity being wiped out within 75 years are as high as one in six, according to Oxford University futurologist Toby Ord, who compared the odds to a game of Russian roulette. His colleague Nick Bostrom is more pessimistic, rating the probability of extinction by the next century at one in four. Pulitzer Prize-winning author Jared Diamond estimates human survival beyond 2050 at just 50/50.
Cambridge academic Luke Kemp argues in a new book that all societies are “self-terminating,” collapsing under corruption, inequality and greed. “Goliaths,” he says, appear invincible but fall through environmental damage, military overreach and “immiseration of the masses.”
Today’s threats range from nuclear weapons with an estimated 10,000 warheads stockpiled globally to engineered viruses, runaway artificial intelligence and climate change accelerating ten times faster than past extinction events. Kemp warns that a breakdown of infrastructure from events such as a solar flare could destroy global food and communication systems, plunging societies into chaos.
Wealthy tech leaders are preparing for collapse with fortified bunkers, while developing nations may fare better in food production due to lower reliance on chemicals. Yet climate change could displace billions by 2070. Even potential solutions like geoengineering carry “termination shock” risks that could worsen warming.
“Every option comes with near-suicidal implications,” Kemp cautions. The risk, he adds, is like loading multiple bullets into the chamber of humanity’s revolver.
THIS WAS ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON DAILY MAIL