Progress on macroeconomic charts means little if it cannot be felt in kitchens, classrooms, clinics, and farms. Nigerians are not statistics.
At a glance, Nigeria appears to be turning a corner. Inflation is slowing. Exchange rate volatility is easing. Global credit agencies are applauding fiscal consolidation. And with a GDP growth estimate of 3.7 percent in the first half of 2025, it’s tempting to declare that the worst is behind us.
But this is the cruel irony of Nigeria’s macroeconomic recovery story: the numbers are rising, but the people are not. Progress is being declared in boardrooms while desperation deepens in the marketplaces. This is the paradox of reform without relief, a recovery that looks good on paper but feels hollow to the average Nigerian.
“ The World Bank puts the figure of those living below the monetary poverty line at 104 million, a staggering indictment of an economic system that grows but does not distribute.”
The government’s reform agenda has, to its credit, delivered certain structural corrections. From market liberalisation to tax reform, FX auctions to debt market expansion, policymakers have taken steps long advised by economists and development partners. Sovereign credit outlooks are improving. The naira, for the first time in a year, is trading within a predictable band. Bond yields are rising, and investor sentiment is returning.
But let us be clear: progress on macroeconomic charts means little if it cannot be felt in kitchens, classrooms, clinics, and farms. Nigerians are not statistics. Their pain cannot be pacified by PowerPoint.
Despite the disinflation narrative, headline inflation moderating to 22.97 percent from a brutal 34.8 percent in December 2024, the cost of food and transport remains prohibitively high. Rice, garri, yam, cooking gas, and even tomatoes are still beyond the reach of millions. For the typical Nigerian family, the word “reform” no longer conjures hope but fear of yet another subsidy removal, another currency devaluation, another round of tightening without cushioning.
Over 133 million Nigerians remain multidimensionally poor, per the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s more than 60 percent of the population living without access to quality healthcare, education, clean water, or decent housing. The World Bank puts the figure of those living below the monetary poverty line at 104 million, a staggering indictment of an economic system that grows but does not distribute.